Friday, March 4, 2011

That Tuesday

The morning was overcast. As usual I cycled to work. As part of cycle month the social club had arranged a light breakfast for cyclists. Rebecca from the social club provided hot cross buns, fruit, muesli bars and juice.

Not many cyclists this morning, the weather put off many. I chatted with Rebecca as I ate a little. Her house had been badly damaged by the September quake. She and her husband were living in their house even though it was damaged. She spoke of the frustration of not knowing.

After the breakfast I went to work. First I sent the cricket spreadsheet to Boaz for checking (I am running a competition for the world cup). The rest of the morning I wrote some code and made some progress. At morning tea I sent out the cricket progress.

I usually take 45 minutes for lunch. I usually leave my desk at about 12:30 and walk into the city, pick up lunch in Armagh Street and carry through to Cathedral Square. I eat my lunch and watch some chess. I usually leave the square just after 1:00 and get back at 1:15. I had though been taking lunch slightly earlier.

Luckily this Tuesday I decided to just walk to Armagh Street, get some meat from Verkerks. I usually do not buy steak but rump steak was on special so I purchased a piece, two chops and four chicken drumsticks.

I returned to work and got back at about 12:45. I was just starting working when the earthquake struck. We had aftershock before. I had felt them before. I had dived under my desk before. I had not before felt a fury like this. There was no slow rumble and casual build up. This was sudden and violent. The desk above seemed to float above I held it to hold it steady. I had no idea what was happening. I saw a colleague on the floor before me I helped him under the desk. To me the quake seemed brief compared to the force. Other told me it was much longer.

The shaking finished and I have no idea how I felt. I have no recollection. I knew I was supposed to leave the building. I knew I would be heading home. At the time I thought I would return in a day and return.

We had only returned to the third floor in December. The September quake had resulted in the ceiling coming down. The ceiling had been strengthened. The strengthening had worked little had fallen on people. Still there was a mess, contents of desks strewn over the floor. I looked to the rubble to find my cell phone. Luckily it was near the top. Still by the time I picked it up most people had evacuated the floor.

I gathered my stuff including my meat form the fridge. The glass wall of at least one meeting room was shattered. It was a miracle no one in the building was badly injured. I headed down stairs, stopped briefly in the work café to check on the staff there, then headed outside.

People gathered in the car park, others headed home. Lyne phoned me to make sure I was home. I told her I’d be home soon. I chattered to colleagues. I noticed cracks in our building. I realised then it would be a while before we returned to work. I did not realise the flats in front of our office had fallen down. How I missed that? I went around to the bike shed to get my bike. However no power so no entry. I though no worries I’ll get it tomorrow I’ll just walk home. I send Lyne a text to say I’d be a bit later.

I hung around for a few more minutes. Then people noticed the flats. Some brave people went to check on the flats to make sure people were not trapped. I decided it was about time to work home.

On a usual day it takes 45 minutes to walk home. It did not take long to realise this day the journey would be looking. There was water everywhere. It seemed every water pipe and sewer had burst. There was water everywhere. The footpaths were flooded and the roads were flooded. A mass of traffic was heading down Bealey Ave. Power was out traffic lights did not work. It was chaos. I phone Lyne to tell her I would be later than expected. I had no idea how long I would be. She offered to pick me up. Luckily I told her not to.

I started walking. I looked to walk along streets with less flooding. I got to Hills Road. The flooding seemed worse on the east side than the west. My shoes and socks were soaked it was impossible to keep dry. However there were was some drier bits.

When I got to Edgeware Road all I saw in front was water. I decided to try another street. Geraldine Street seemed better. However when I got a block up it seemed worse so I turned back. I tried Barbadoes Street it was bad too. I realised it was all bad. The footpath was impossible to walk down. I joined other walking down the middle of the road. By now cars were travelling slowly so walking down the middle caused little difficulty.

On the walk I talked to many people checking to see that they were ok. When walking down Barbadoes Street I followed a young lad. He was much more aware than I was. He noticed a couple in stress. He wadded across to them, I merely followed, the water was above my knee so my new trousers (I had purchased them on the previous Sunday) got soaked. The couple were fine like most people they were shocked.

When I got to Warrington Street I turned righted and headed towards Shirley. The footpath on Warrington Street was less flooded so I returned to walking along them. I crossed the road about half way to Hills Road. It was Warrington Street where I first smelt the sewerage. There was no option I walked on. I recognised the son of a friend chatting with his friends. I decided not to chat with him, he would not know me. The way I recognised him was he look so much like his father and his mother lives nearby. I hope his mother, who is blind, was fine. I was heading home to be with my wife I was forgetting about others.

At Hills Road Warrington Street becomes Shirley Road. I had to decide to turn and walk along Hills Road or to carry on up to Quinns Road. I chose wrong again and headed north along Hills Road. I made it to the first corner and turned into a small street then a foot lane on to another small street. Again I walked past a friends place without checking she was ok. I reached Emmett Street to resume the journey north. No way the street was flooded, vehicles abandoned. I headed south back to Shirley Road. From then on the water seemed less. I went onto Quinns Road and headed north again. Much less water but there was a lot of silt. With less water it was easier to walk. There were huge cracks in the road, a stranded car and local people directing traffic away from danger. People are wonderful. From just past the school the damage was less. Less silt and stuff all water. There were chimneys downs but it seemed like a different planet to what I had left.

I got home and found my wife. Our house stands at the time we had no water, sewerage, phone, internet nor power. The house has cracks in the foundations and between Gibb however it remained watertight. We are very lucky.

Monday, May 10, 2010

UK Elections Under MMP

What if the UK had a version of MMP and vote exactly the same way they did on Thursday.

Based on Numbers from
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/results/

Below is a comparison of the results with different Thresholds and a different method of allocating seats
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method

UK Election Result 2010 FPP Election 4% d'Hondt 3% Sainte-Laguë
Conservative 307 243 238
Labour 258 197 197
Liberal Dem 57 162 159
UKIP 0 9 16
BNP 0 3 4
Green 1 1 1
SNP 6 12 12
Plaid Cymru 3 5 5
DUP 8 5 5
UCU 0 3 3
SDLP 3 3 3
Alliance 1 1 1
Sinn Fein 5 5 5
Ind Unionist 1 1 1
Total 650 650 650







England Under 4% d'Hondt

Conservative Labour Liberal Dem UKIP BNP Green
North East 7 14 7 0 1 0
Nort West 26 32 17 0 0 0
Yorkshire / Humber 19 20 13 0 2 0
West Midlands 25 19 13 2 0 0
East Midlands 21 15 10 0 0 0
Eastern 29 12 15 2 0 0
South West 25 8 20 2 0 0
South East 43 14 23 3 0 1
London 27 29 17 0 0 0
England Total 222 163 135 9 3 1

England Under 3% Sainte-Laguë

Conservative Labour Liberal Dem UKIP BNP Green
North East 7 14 7
1
Nort West 25 31 17 2

YorkShire / Humber 19 20 13
2
West Midlands 25 19 13 2

East Midlands 19 14 10 2 1
Eastern 28 12 15 3

South West 24 9 19 3

South East 43 14 22 4
1
London 27 29 17


England Total 217 162 133 16 4 1

Scotland and Northern Ireland are identical with both thresholds. The only difference in Wales is 1 extra seat to the Liberal Democrats (using the Sainte-Laguë compared to d'Hondt) at the expense of Labour.


Scotland Wales

FPP Either FPP d'Hondt Sainte-Laguë
Conservative 1 10 8 11 11
Labour 41 26 26 8 9
Liberal Dem 11 11 3 16 15
SNP 6 12


Plaid Cymru

3 5 5
Total
59
40 40



Northern Ireland

FPP Either
DUP 8 5
UCU 0 3
Ind Unoinist 1 1
Total Unionists 9 9



SDLP 3 3
Sinn Fein 5 5
Total Nationalists




Alliance 1 1
Total 18 18













































































Sunday, July 26, 2009

Foreign Investment in New Zealand

I get upset by media and politician who really seem to confuse terms. Oversea purchase of an existing asset is not the same as overseas investment. When an overseas company (or individual) buys an existing asset it is a transfer of ownership (not investment).

Investment occurs when more money is put into an asset and that money is used to purchase more capital assets. When those capital assets operate they create wealth. (in some case it might be possible to use unused assets but Auckland Airport assets are not unused)

Before Telecom was sold by the government, they (the government) had invested billions of dollars in new capital. This meant the new owners did not have to invest in the business for years.

Worse, when Contact Energy was sold (with Edision Mission (?) having a 40% shareholding) one of the first actions of the new owners was to dismantle generation plant and export that equipment (I think to China). No new investment from Contact Energy occurred to well after it was sold to Origin Energy.

In my opinion any investment in New Zealand from overseas must include provision that there is more than change of ownership. There must be commitment to growing assets and employing people. If not I can see no reason to have oversea ownership. Why let NZ assets be used for the same purpose where all the profit returns to China, India, Brazil or Australia (the rest of the world appears to be in recession so is unlikely to be able to invest in NZ right now)

Some say that buying shares is investing. Actually this is more like saving or in some cases gambling. If you buy shares and that money is used to build something productive that is probably investment. And if you have money in a business that converts profits in to increasing capital investment then that is partly investment.

However most people who buy shares just buy into existing businesses who do little increase in investment. Many do less that replace their existing depreciation assets.

In fact building a new house is closer to investing than buying shares in many businesses. Buying shares can be less investing that saving money in a bank account as banks will lend your maney for profit. And some of that money may be used by businesses to expand.

For NZ we need to save, stop borrowing to buy the latest gadget

end of rave

Friday, May 22, 2009

Thoughts on a rainy day

The rain falling as it seems to have for weeks. Unfortunately it falls through the roof above my kitchen.

Why have I started this blog, well a friend suggested it. Not sure why maybe he thought I'd say something worth reading. So here I go and I don't promise anything that is interesting. I can't promise you my spelling or grammar will be correct however I will try to spell in English and will keep spelling colour with a u and organise with an s. The spell check incorrectly tells me I am wrong, I think the spell check is very wrong.

Not sure where to start but some background I am 42 years old (43 next week). I have worked in the same organisation since August 1995. Politically I am active and to the left (far left). How I got to being in the far left is simple I started off in the centre and watched the world move right. I am a democratic socialist and support these beliefs in that order. Socialism through the gun barrel is worthless. However democracy must be democracy. Democracy from the wallet is not democracy, it leads to either socialism though the gun barrel or more commonly fascism though the gun barrel. I can accept Tories being elected I don't support them buying power and disenfranchising others. Democracy where less than 80% vote is no democracy. Even 90% is low.

Now let me head off on some random tangent.

As a green lefty liberal the one thing that pisses me off is green left liberals. I may agree with most things they do. However can't this people see that they need to have a broad base to be electable?
The left seem not to know the meaning of the word 'broad'. Left parties are always joining together to make a bigger group. However shortly after the combined group is small that either of the old groups. It is quite clear why. It is so obvious why cannot they see it.

When two left groups unite it would make sense that concentrate on the common position. Not the left, when left group combine each group has a 'pet policy' so when two groups combine those policies are the centre of the new group.

So what happens, well some people in group A don't like the pet policy from group B they leave the group. And people in group B who don't like the pet policy from group A leave. It gets worse because when they later merge with group C then there are three pet policies. Everytime they merge they get smaller.

For a left party to be successful it needs to get rid of all the pet policies, none at all. The left need a set of common beliefs not a series of pet policies that in combination are only agreed by 100 people on the planet.

Well that is my opinion I could well be wrong, I could also be the only person who ever reads this blog. In fact I should accept that I will be the only reader.

Inky